India has maintained a face of neutrality on Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was made clear to the world by abstaining on several occasions on UN resolutions condemning Russia. It is not surprising that India does not want to distance its very old and trusted friend.
More than half of military equipments of India are from cheaper and sure Russians source. On many occasions Russia has even transferred the technology of making weapons. Its role during Bangladesh war is legendary.
Still the West is puzzled with Indian diplomacy since the blatant and premeditated attack of Russia on Ukraine is almost indefensible. India, which keeps on harping on higher international principles of non-interference into any other country, is finding it difficult to justify its stand.
In the changing scenario of Indo- Pacific and emergence of an aggressive China, India has moved closer to the West. Formation of Quad is a significant recent development in the world. Indian stand has suddenly made it a nation to be wooed by all important countries of the world.
Nowadays Indian capital is crowded with important leaders and diplomats of the world.
‘Recent top-level envoys have included, among others, the prime minister of Japan, the foreign ministers of China, Britain, Russia, Mexico, Greece, Oman and Austria, an American undersecretary of state and deputy national security adviser, and a senior adviser to the German chancellor’. They all are trying to get support or at least attention for their stand on this issue.
Like India, for many reasons China is also finding itself in an awkward situation. China is very sensitive to its economy and will not take any suicidal step like Russia to annoy the West. This crisis may soften the Chinese aggression on LAC.
Talking to Chinese foreign minister, on its part India made it very clear that settlement of boundary dispute is the foremost condition for India to improve any relations and this message has gone loud and clear. India will be watching keenly about the Beijing’s thinking about border dispute.
China sees an opportunity in India not being firmly in the lap of the West. Russia may be of some help to persuade China for a peaceful settlement of our Himalayan boundary, but we should keep in mind that Chinese policy changes very slowly.
India has also to understand that its stakes in Russian friendship are definitely not so high that Indian foreign policy remains pegged only on this. Russia also needs Indian market to sell its weapons.
India is already trying to diversify its sources of weapons and is also creating its own defence industry. Russia will be of no use if China attacks India. As far as the West is concerned it will definitely not fight war for India, but will be compelled to help India with all possible resources.
India , although only 1/5 of Chinese economy, is still a big power for any coalition against China. US, Japan and Australia have already recognised this.
Sooner or later, India has to side with the west which by sheer coincidence has a principled stand on Ukraine. US had been invading country after country since World War II.
But after seeing its pathetic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the plight of Russia getting bogged down against a small enemy, US may not make it a policy to interfere militarily in other countries.
In a multipolar world now there are some chances of reasonable peace after this unique European war. However , the Dragon will keep the world on tenterhooks.
