Six months ago Russia attacked its earlier province Ukraine. Russia being a world power was expected to finish this war in a matter of a few days. The world was just waiting the Ukrainian President Zelensky to surrender. The President, however, decided to resist at the cost of any loss of life and property. His army stood with him. With his determination helped by the Western countries, especially US with arms and ammunition, this war may continue for an indefinite period. On the battlefield a war of attrition is under way along a thousand-kilometre front line of death and destruction.
However, there is one more significant fact which is emerging is the lack of any impact of financial sanctions imposed by the Western democracies on Russia. Since February America, Europe and their allies have unleashed a war on Russian firms and individuals. Half of Russia’s $580bn of currency reserves lies frozen and most of its big banks are cut off from the global payments system. America no longer buys Russian oil, and a European embargo will come fully into effect in next February. Russian firms are barred from buying inputs from engines to chips. US has pressurised its European and other allies, including India, not to buy Russian gas or crude. There is defiance on part of the allies of this American diktat. The effectiveness of this embargo is critical to the outcome of the Ukraine war. But it also reveals a great deal about liberal democracies’ capacity to project power globally into the late 2020s and beyond, including against China. The might of the Western democracies which they enjoyed in the second half of the 20th century is now slowly crumbling with the rise of aggressive China. India should be aware of it.
