With the ominous concentration of Russian military might on Ukraine’s eastern border, Belarus and Black Sea, the prospects for the world peace has become menacingly grim as never before after the Second World War. While US wants to bring Ukraine under the influence of Western powers by bringing it under NATO , Russia has staked everything for keeping Ukraine under friendly neutrality. Since the dictates of realpolitik on both sides are becoming uncontrollable, the vulnerability to the world peace is real.
To understand this crisis in a simple way would be a recapitulation of the recent history of Europe. In the second world war UK, US and Soviet Union fought together against Hitler’s Germany. After they were victorious in 1945, UK was considerably weakened and the Soviet Union became the dominant power in Europe.
The Western European countries, scared of Soviet union and its communism, joined hands with US to create NATO in 1949. After Second World War Soviet Union increased its influence in Eastern Europe by establishing Communist regimes in these countries including East Germany. In 1955 Russia and East European countries entered into an agreement at Warsaw, the capital of Poland, which is known as Watsa Pact. This was a military alliance against NATO.
In a very significant development in Europe, Soviet Union completely collapsed by 1991. The loosening of now Russian influence over Eastern Europe enabled these countries to throw the stranglehold of communism and they gradually came under influence of the Western powers. The most visible sign of NATO’s changes after the Cold War was its increased membership. In 1994 strict military, political, and economic guidelines were adopted for NATO applicants, including support for democracy and free market economic policies. In 1999 three countries of the former Warsaw Pact—Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic—joined NATO. Seven more formerly communist countries joined in 2004: Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
Albania and Croatia joined the alliance in 2009, and Montenegro joined in 2017. NATO‘s influence over Baltic countries, except Belarus brought NATO on the borders of present-day Russia. Now the only country Ukraine is left as buffer between the West and Russia. A glance into the map of the Eastern Europe will make the understanding clear. Ukraine’s present president is pro-America and wants to join NATO. Ukraine is too deep inside Russia and its fear of NATO presence in Ukraine is not without logic.
Now resurgent Russia has forcibly taken from Ukraine in 1914 the Russian populated Crimea and some eastern pockets. It is also instigating the Russian ethnic people living inside Ukraine on the border areas. US declares that Russia is intent on invading Ukraine on some pretext of provocation.
The only possibility of peace is the guarantee of some variety of neutrality of Ukraine which is acceptable to Russia now backed by China and the US. Meanwhile for India the only option is not to take sides.
